Ok mua wrong this time

I thought exit polls are under estimating BJP but it turns out they were overestimating it. Broadly, speaking they were right this time in predicting the trends. Some of the good prediction of NDTV were Congress leading, Tamilnadu split verdict, and in Andhra Chidu playing spoiler for TDP.  

    I also went wrong this time in understanding some of the important trends. Here are some of my mistakes

1> Advantage BJP in UP: I thought putting Varun Gandhi in Jail for his idiotic comment will backfire.  I was partially right it did backfired for BSP but this was not a gain for BJP. Congress did smart thing of doing nothing on this issue. 

Lesson learnt: If two sides are doing idiocy (Varun and BSP), smart thing is to talk about something else and don’t let non-issue as main issue. Credit should be given to Congress for this.

2> Varun Gandhi: I thought that fat kid learnt his lessons from Laloo (Bhurabal saaf kero) and  Mayawati (Tilak, taraju and Talwar inko maro jute char) that saying  absurd unacceptable thing, help you in moblizing  public support and gets  media highlight.  About  media highlight, I was right. It seems only two way you can be noticed by Indian media as a newbee: Born with silver spoon (Rahul), or say something unacceptable and absurd (Mutalic, Varun, Raj Thakary). 

However, I was wrong about actual success of such absurdity.  In 90’s it was paying of for Mayawati and Laloo etc. However, Indian public has matured by now.   So may be I should be less cynical about India now.

3>  Not understanding public sentiment: I was shocked when I heard that my sister and her husband staying in Delhi  voted for congress this time. This is something highly unusual for someone from  Bihari middle class growing up in 90’s. When we grew up in time of  Bofors, Mandir etc, we learnt that congress can do nothing right really. So, it was unusual that they changed side this time. Well, I just forgot that people like my sister and her husband define common man. When a common man change his side overnight it means there is a huge undercurrent for something.  Part of the thing they can see, people like me cannot. For a politically aware person like me, things are well defined in terms of good party, bad party etc. However, someone like my sister who does not really  follow news,  chances of getting influenced by friends, tv etc is high.  So, when I heard that they voted congress, I should have got the message of the outcome. 

4> Maharastra: I underestimated power of lunatic Raj Thakray. Ok, I know they he is not really lunatic but similar to Laloo that man can always act lunatic when it benefit him.  It seems he really is partially responsible for Congress rise in Maharastra.  80% of vote which went to him was BJP, SS vote.  I do not know how right is the rumor I often hear that Raj like Bal Thakray is a creation of congress.

Now, where I was right

1> West Bengal Laloo phenomena: I again saw Laloo phenomena there. In 90’s , most of upper middle class and educated people  in Bihar  were highly anti-Laloo.  However, the more they were against him, the more he won.  There was a similar parallel this time in Bengal. I was amazed by amount of hatred in upper class Bengalis about Mamata.  They quickly forgot Nandigram, 32 year of mis-rule of CPM,  and started blaming   Mamata for everything that is wrong in modern Bengal.   Whenever such thing happens, it is almost certain that the guy who is bad guy for upper middle class, will be chosen by others. I was expecting that the hatred for Mamata is a sure winner for her. 

   Turns out I was right on that. A big loss for CPM  means a good gain in stock market and I was baiting on that. Let us see,  how sweet Monday is going to be…